Robert Morris wins second straight Northeast Conference title
NCAA Basketball Betting Lines
03/10/2010 -
Hamden, CT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Karon Abraham scored 16 points on 7-of-14
shooting, and Robert Morris secured its second straight Northeast Conference
Tournament championship and a trip to the NCAA Tournament with a thrilling
52-50 win over Quinnipiac.
Abraham added three steals for the second-seeded Colonials (23-11), who won
their seventh conference championship in school history. Dallas Green and
Russell Johnson each provided nine points in the exciting victory.
James Feldeine scored 17 points to lead the top-seeded Bobcats (23-9), who
were denied their first trip to the NCAA Tournament since becoming a Division
I program in 1998-99. Justin Rutty contributed 12 points and 10 boards in
defeat.
This game was played on Quinnipiac's home floor, where the team had been 14-0
this season entering the game.
Feldeine missed a deep two-point jumper with 51 seconds left that would have
tied the game, but instead Robert Morris maintained a 50-48 advantage.
Abraham went to dribble up the court but slipped and was called out of bounds
with 19.3 ticks on the clock, giving the Colonials another chance. Feldeine
again tried a deep jumper, but the shot was blocked and knocked out of bounds
by a Quinnipiac player with 9.3 seconds left.
Green and James Johnson traded a pair of free throws, leading to a trip to the
line for Abraham with 2.8 seconds left. Normally an 87 percent free throw
shooter, Abraham missed both, but a desperation heave from beyond half court
fell well short of the basket.
Quinnipiac put together an 11-0 run over about five minutes in the first half
to take a 15-10 lead on a pair of Jeremy Baker free throws, but Robert Morris
was able to trim that deficit to 25-23 at halftime.
Neither team held more than a four-point lead at any time in the second half,
and that margin last came with 16 minutes left on a Feldeine jumper. Robert
Morris went back ahead by three, 44-41, on a Rob Robinson basket with 6:12 to
play, but Rutty came back to tie the game at 48-all for the Bobcats on a pair
from the line with 1:41 on the clock.
Velton Jones followed with a made shot for the Colonials for a 50-48 contest.
Game Notes
Robert Morris beat seventh-seeded Central Connecticut State in the
quarterfinals and third-seeded Mount St. Mary's in the semifinals...Quinnipiac
defeated eighth-seeded Monmouth in the quarters and fourth-seeded Long Island
in the semis...The Bobcats took the lone season meeting, but Robert Morris
leads the all-time series, 15-8...Both teams went 15-3 in conference play
during the regular season...By virtue of Quinnipiac's regular season
conference title, the Bobcats are guaranteed a bid into the National
Invitation Tournament if not selected for the NCAA Tournament.
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The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
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