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Iowa State looks to snap TD drought against Iowa

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/07/2010 -

AMES, Iowa (AP) -Former Iowa State quarterback Bret Meyer's second-quarter touchdown run gave the Cyclones a 14-3 lead over Iowa back in 2006, and it looked as though Iowa State was set to stun its rival yet again.

Little did anyone know, that would be the last TD the Cyclones would score against the Hawkeyes - in that game or since.

No. 9 Iowa (1-0) hasn't let up a touchdown to Iowa State in 14 quarters, a stretch that's spanned four years and three coaches; Dan McCarney, Gene Chizik and now Paul Rhoads. The Cyclones head back to Kinnick for Saturday's matchup with the Hawkeyes knowing they will need more than field goals to pull off the upset.

``We have to limit our turnovers and obviously, execute,'' Iowa State running back Alexander Robinson said. ``They're a good defense regardless, but especially in the red zone.''

Rhoads knew going into the season that Iowa State (1-0) was going to have to score more than the 20.5 points it averaged a year ago if it was going to have a shot at another bowl game.

The Cyclones still have work to do on offense, but they were productive enough to get by Northern Illinois in the opener.

Iowa State totaled 403 yards of offense in last Thursday night's 27-10 win over the Huskies. But although the Cyclones rushed for three TDs, two by Alexander Robinson and one by quarterback Austen Arnaud, they averaged less than four yards per carry. Nearly half of those yards came on Robinson's 63-yard score early in the second quarter.

Arnaud also had a 53-yard rush for a score called back on a penalty, though, and Rhoads said Monday that Northern Illinois stacked the box in attempt to keep the Cyclones from establishing the run.

``They were going to make us beat them with the passing game, and Austen and the rest of the offense did that,'' Rhoads said.

Arnaud, who spent the offseason tweaking his mechanics in an effort to be more accurate, was certainly on target against the Huskies, completing 27 of 36 passes for 265 yards. But he didn't throw a touchdown pass and had two of his throws picked off - including a brutal misread deep in Northern Illinois territory in the third quarter, when the Cyclones looked poised to bury the Huskies.

It was the kind of throw Arnaud made all too often last season against Iowa, when he tossed four picks in Iowa's 35-3 win in Ames.

``I played terrible,'' Arnaud said of last season's loss. ``It's something that I hope to not do again going into this year, but I can't think about it, let it hang over my head.''

Rhoads was pleased with Arnaud's first effort of this season, although he noted there is still room for improvement with his senior quarterback.

``He threw two bad interceptions, and they were bad decisions on his part and bad balls on his part. But he threw for 75 percent accuracy with 36 thrown balls, which is something he didn't do a year ago,'' Rhoads said. ``He did a great job of executing and running the offense. He did a nice job running the football.''

The Cyclones could find it tough to break their touchdown drought against the Hawkeyes, who return eight starters from a defense that allowed just 15.4 points per game last season and beat Eastern Illinois 37-7 in their opener.

Iowa held the Panthers to just 157 yards, and Eastern Illinois needed a perfectly executed fake punt and long pass play to set up their lone touchdown.

Iowa State did beat Iowa in 2007 without scoring a touchdown, winning 15-13 in Ames on a late field goal. But the Cyclones were outscored 52-8 in the last two meetings between the heated rivals, notching just two field goals and a late safety in a 17-5 loss in 2008.

``They're not a flashy team by their own account. They've got a front four that's as good as any front four in the country,'' Rhoads said. ``There's something to be said for doing something over and repeatedly and doing it really well. That's the University of Iowa.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.


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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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SPORTS BETTING

NFL Football Betting Online

In terms of sports wagering, the NFL is "the most popular game in town." The explanation behind that is easy.

It is called the "pointspread."

Many years ago, NFL games, as well as the more popular college games, used straight odds as a vehicle for betting. For example, if the Bears were playing the Giants, and it shaped up as a competitive contest, the Bears might be, say, a 7/5 favorite. If they were playing an also-ran, it might be 10/1. Well, there is a point where a line becomes prohibitive, as far as betting the favorite. And who would waste money betting an underdog that has virtually no chance? Such a setup did not contribute to promoting betting action.

But in modern sports betting, a "pointspread" is used.

A NFL pointspreads are exactly that, a pre-established point difference between the two sides that will, for all intents and purposes, create a handicap that evens things out, and in doing so, produces comparable wagering activity on both sides of that proposition. So in lieu of a odds figure in which to bet the team to win outright, the Bears might be a three-point favorite over the New York Giants, and a 17-point favorite over the also-ran. Now that the team that is the underdog can "get" points, there can be equal action on both sides.

In sportsbooks, this is usually done with efficiency by charging the losing bettors 10% extra - in effect, bettors are laying 11/10 on those games. So they are actually betting $110 to win $100. If they lose, they pay the "vig." If they win, they simply collect.

The establishment of the pointspread as the corner stone around which team sports like football can be wagered upon was truly what brought gridiron betting into the stratosphere for online football betting .

Don't believe it? Just take a look at what happens around the Super Bowl.

Stay with us here as we take you through the best in NFL action on a consistent basis, with advice columns as well as handicapping selections. If you're looking for college football betting, that's in our NCAA section, which you can reach by clicking here. And if you're looking for a different kind of football, such as the Canadian Football League, which we'll deal with occasionally, or the Arena Football League, which we really like, you can find it in our Miscellaneous section by clicking

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting odds .
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